Entrepreneurial Round Table Nuremberg: The thrust of universities, the lameness of the office and housing market and locations with prospects - eight experts will discuss these topics
The higher education and research landscape of the metropolitan region offers great prospects. It is growing and thriving, with several new construction and expansion projects in Nuremberg and Erlangen contributing to this. And so Wolfgang P. Küspert, Managing Director of Küspert & Küspert, is confident: "What happens at the universities will have a positive effect for decades to come, promoting young talent, creating jobs and securing purchasing power." These positive prospects set the tone for the business roundtable, without at the same time ignoring the problematic aspects of the current economic situation. But more on that later. Sven Sontowski, managing director of the Sontowski & Partner Group, points out the concrete projects: "The settlement of the Technical University in Lichtenreuth, the new building of the Friedrich-Alexander University in the northern part of the city, all that is very important. For Bertram Schultze, managing partner of Coloured Fields, this meant that the FAU decided against the campus "Auf AEG", but the Georg Simon Ohm Technical University is expanding there, as he explains: "We are building a 12,000 square metre research building for them." A total of 40,000 square metres will then be available for the university and research on the site.
Miguel Soto Palma, Director of Real Estate, Municipalities and Institutional Clients at Sparkasse Nürnberg, sees three important investment impulses for the region in the coming years. In first place are technologically driven services, for example in the area of electromobility. The other two are: "Everything to do with sustainability and transformation, because that's what all companies are investing in; there's also a lot of demand for IT services, especially data centres." "Here we come full circle to the Technical University," says Andreas Zeitler, Bavaria branch manager of Instone Real Estate, about the research-intensive companies. He emphasises that there is a movement away from Munich from which the metropolitan region is benefiting. The reasons for this: "In Munich there is hardly any commercial space or residential space that you can afford."
The home office makes an unexpectedly strong impact
Office space is available in Nuremberg because the market is currently in a dry spell. "The number of rental applications is declining sharply, the decision-making periods for companies are increasing," says Wolfgang Küspert, outlining the situation. Asmus Freiherr von Eyb, CEO of Pegasus Capital Partners, confirms this: "We observe among our tenants that they now prefer to extend their contracts, which may be expiring, as flexibly as possible and at short notice and only want to make more far-reaching decisions when they see things more clearly again." Some companies even want to downsize their space by up to 50 per cent. "I didn't expect the home office to have such a significant impact," says Wolfgang P. Küspert. As a result, he says, a growing "shadow market" of sublet spaces is developing, even for offices that tenants have not even moved into yet. "Not a week goes by that we don't look at space from corporates under this aspect." In addition, he says, there is a willingness on the part of tenants to subsidise subleases. Küspert sees around 40,000 square metres of subletting.
flächen auf den Markt kommen: „Zehn bis 15 Prozent der Flächen, die momentan verfügbar sind, sind Untermietflächen.“
Die vorhandenen Mietgesuche haben sich laut Küspert deutlich verändert. „Die Themen ESG und Green Leases sind nicht allmählich, sondern von heute auf morgen auf dem Nürnberger Markt angekommen.“ Selbst Büros, die erst zehn Jahre alt sind, dürften deswegen Probleme bekommen. Auch bei den Lagen zeigt sich ein Umschwung: „Bei innerstädtischen Flächen ist die Nachfrage deutlich größer als in der Peripherie, wo der Leerstand wächst.“ Dennoch erwartet Küspert, dass die Spitzenmiete bis zum Jahr 2025 die Marke von „echten 20 Euro pro Quadratmeter“ erreicht. Was dann wiederum die Investoren freuen wird.
A major request was withdrawn
A peripheral office location with problems is Nordostpark. "Portfolio owners should start thinking about their tenants' wishes now," recommends Küspert. "We also don't expect any project developments there in the near future." This statement is interesting in that the Munich-based project developer RT-Quadrat had acquired a property plus an option for a plot with 25,000 square metres of development potential. A year ago RT then announced that it would realise the project together with Invester United Benefits from Austria. The round also agreed that it would be difficult in Nuremberg-Moorenbrunn. Siemens has terminated its lease there, which runs until 2026, and will move the 2,200 workplaces to the new Erlangen campus. Erlangen will benefit from this. And what about the space that Siemens is freeing up in the Erlangen city centre? "That will be occupied by the university, among others, which will locate the Centre for Humanities and a language centre here," says Sven Sontowski confidently. "This creates new opportunities for growth." A major bid that had long preoccupied the Nuremberg market has officially been withdrawn with the change at the top of the authority:The Federal Labour Office wanted to merge many Nuremberg locations."It was stopped in the home stretch," says Stefan Wiegand, Managing Director Region South of Aurelis Real Estate.But since the employees are sitting in offices that are anything but modern, "they will have to look for space," he expects.But those who have modern space to offer will still find tenants."In Seetor we are almost fully let," reports Sven Sontowski.And the high-rise project The One in the Thon district, whose 10,000 square metres of space will be ready for occupancy in 2025, "is also almost 70 percent let."
"The real estate development business has dried up across the board"
A thick skidmark also runs through the housing market. "The property development business has largely dried up across the board," Miguel Soto Palma reports from the perspective of the person who provides financing. "I don't see any significant transactions in the second half of 2023 either." Developers and investors are waiting - in residential as well as office - for a new price level and opportunities. He sees these, for example, in existing multifamily buildings, whose prices have already fallen sharply. What cost 2,500 to 3,000 euros per square meter two years ago can now be had for around 1,500 to 2,000 euros. "If you enter today attractively and are competent in the energy-related issues, there is a high value-added potential." This is also how Asmus von Eyb sees it, especially for apartments in the C-cities of the region such as Bayreuth or Coburg. "There are affordable rents there, and the cash flow is there," he explains. Anyone who renovates these properties to make them more energy-efficient can reduce ancillary costs and increase rents, which are still below seven euros in some cases today, while still keeping warm rents largely stable.
In general, Pegasus currently prefers existing properties, which would then be sold nationwide. For condominiums in new construction, up to 8,000 euros per square meter are paid in Nuremberg in good locations. "But it is no longer going up without limit," says Andreas Zeitler. In return, he says, in individual cases new-build apartments in Südstadt or in the surrounding area can be had for 5,000 euros. Price reductions are not necessary at the moment, says Zeitler: "Either someone is interested in buying or not, the price is not the issue here." Asking prices are around 8,000 euros per square meter in Erlangen, 6,300 euros in Fürth and 5,900 euros in Herzogenaurach. Private and institutional buyers are holding back - as is the case everywhere in Germany. "However, we are continuing to launch projects, because the demand for living space remains high," Zeitler emphasizes. "We continue to build and push all building permits that go," also confirms Eva-Maria Zurek, CEO of the P&P Group. The response from customers is "selective," he says, and the equity of the buyers plays a key role. Sven Sontowski is glad that his company focused on a neighborhood development with apartments with the Seetor. "In a few years, everyone will be flocking to the housing market again." In Lichtenreuth, Aurelis continues to market development sites for apartments. "We have received bids primarily for construction sites in the area of subsidized rental housing," Stefan Wiegand specifies. In the case of the Bamberg project of the P&P Group on the site of the former Lagarde barracks, it is apparent that three- and four-room apartments are particularly in demand. "We see a lot of demand from older people who want to downsize their living space," explains Eva-Maria Zurek. In addition, condominiums are generally rare in Bamberg.
The price level is around 5,500 euros per square meter. Instone has also just started building 150 apartments there
The roundtable looks at Nuremberg's city center with concern. The City Point is empty, the Kaufhof across the street is having a sale. "In Breite Gasse up to the White Tower, the vacancy rate is about 30 percent," Miguel Soto Palma reports. Newport's hotel project filed for bankruptcy in June, and H&M is moving to Karolinenstrasse. Soto Palma suggests, "The city should create more momentum." "It's not just about Breite Gasse, it's about the whole core downtown," Asmus von Eyb emphasizes. In contrast, Südstadt gives cause for hope: "The Schocken-Carré is an impulse driver and contributes to revitalization," says Soto Palma.
Nuremberg's north and west on the rise
In Nuremberg's north, it is not only the new location of the Friedrich Alexander University that will set accents. "It has always been a sought-after residential location, and it will benefit from the current developments," Andreas Zeitler expects. These include the S&P project "The One" as well as the neighborhood around the Umweltbank's new location on Nordwestring.
A major project on the northern edge of the city in the direction of Erlangen is the former Hefewerk in the Buch district. Coloured Fields is planning a neighborhood there on around eleven hectares with apartments in existing buildings and new buildings. "It is to become the new local center for Buch at the final stop of the streetcar," explains Bertram Schultze. "The metropolitan region continues to grow together," Asmus von Eyb sums up. The city is also undergoing fundamental changes in the direction of Fürth. The trigger is Gerchgroup's major project "The Q," the former Quelle mail order center. The fact that the Nuremberg city administration will move in there is clear and will not only influence the immediate surroundings, but also the axis that extends to Fürth. From this point of view, Eva-Maria Zurek says, "We think it's very good what's happening there. It will have a positive impact, because the two cities are also closely connected by the subway." "What's next for residential use? After all, there are more than 1,000 residential units planned in three phases of construction." This is a question that concerns Miguel Soto Palma. Thanks to the Denkmal-AfA, "residential construction will come," Wolfgang P. Küspert is convinced. He highlights that retail space is already leased long-term and a food court is planned. "The quarter has a great opportunity to become a place of pilgrimage for architecture and project development fans," Schultze expects. And that applies not only to The Q, but also to a property with a problematic history: the Congress Hall on the Reichsparteitagsgelände. "Its revitalization will develop a supraregional appeal if it is done well."
Source: "Vorsprung durch Bildung" - Roswitha Loibl, Department of Economics, Science, Urban Development and Real Estate Office for Economics of the City of Fürth, 17.08.2023